Film festivals and graduates – the statistics?

Does anyone know what percentage of short animated films in the festivals actually get distribution deals or an invitation to work on a larger project? Has anyone researched the figures? I can’t find anything.

I’m just curious about what the best route for a new animation graduate might be. Film festival circuit, and lock down the film for a year or more in the hope of a distribution deal / grant to make another film? Or put it out freely on YouTube/Vimeo, and use it as a cow-catcher for a Kickstarter or IndieGoGo crowd-funding call?